When experts are wrong, it's often because they're experts on an earlier version of the world.

People tend to see things as frozen in time, as static. They often won't see their environment as an evolving thing. This year protect yourself against obsolete beliefs:

  1. Be aggressively open-minded. 

  2. Believe in change. People who fall victim to a monotonically increasing confidence in their opinions are implicitly concluding the world is static.

  3. Admit you have no idea what the right direction is, and try instead to be super sensitive to the winds of change.

  4. If you're sufficiently expert in a field, any weird idea or apparently irrelevant question that occurs to you is ipso facto worth exploring.

  5. Turn your comments into bets.

  6. Focus initially on people rather than ideas. Though the nature of future discoveries is hard to predict, you can predict quite well what sort of people will make them. 

  7. Ask what assumptions you make and whether they are still